Date of Award

Spring 2018

Document Type

Honors Thesis

Department/Major

Economics

First Advisor

Dr. Mike Allgrunn

Second Advisor

Ms. Mandie Weinandt

Third Advisor

Mr. Tyler Custis, J.D.

Keywords

Win Shares, Rookie Contracts, NBA, Advanced Metrics, Sports

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the win share statistic and compensation in the National Basketball Association (NBA) by using data from eighteen draft classes from 1989 to 2006. The research shows that players are generally compensated in accordance with their production, unless bound by a rookie contract. Historically, players under a rookie contract have win share production that exceeds their compensation level. Therefore, in-game statistics are examined, using both collegiate and NBA data to determine whether win share production can be predicted before a player enters the NBA. Collegiate data does not prove to be a sound indicator of professional level win-shares, but in-game statistics do seem to be a good predictor of win-shares when NBA data is used. Ultimately, win share regression is beneficial for NBA organizations making rookie contract decisions (i.e. team options) for players that have been drafted, but further research would be needed to determine which players to draft.

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