Monitoring the Qosh Tepa Canal Project: A Geospatial Timeline of Taliban Water Diversion

Author

Enerel L. Crosslin, University of South DakotaFollow

Date of Award

Spring 5-2025

Document Type

Honors Thesis

Department/Major

International Studies

Additional Department

Economics

First Advisor

Ranjeet John

Second Advisor

David Burrow

Third Advisor

Timothy Schorn

Keywords

Qosh Tepa Canal, Amu Darya River, Satellite imagery, Water diversion, Water Security, Central Asia water security, Taliban infrastructure, Climate change in Afghanistan, Remote sensing, Canal construction

Subject Categories

Asian Studies | Development Studies | Food Security | International Relations | Remote Sensing | Water Resource Management

Abstract

The World Food Program states that “acute malnutrition in Afghanistan is above emergency thresholds in 25 out of 34 provinces and is expected to worsen”. Aiming to support agriculture, the Taliban began to build the 285 km “Qosh Tepa Canal” to divert 17% of the Amu Darya, which supports the livelihoods of millions of people in downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The World Bank estimated that roughly 2.4 million Central Asians could become climate refugees by 2050. Our objectives are to create a timeline of satellite imagery of the canal’s construction. Our research questions are (1) Can we characterize water diversion efforts through high-cadence satellite imagery? (2) Are there any significant integrity issues with the QT canal? (3) What is the rate of canal construction? After constructing a timeline, we then review the estimated impact of the canal and briefly summarize the literature on the Amu Darya’s history with water diversion as it relates to the Qosh Tepa Canal. This study shows that excavation reached 70% completion in 2024, indicating possible operation in 2026, two years ahead of schedule. Additionally, a breach in the canal wall has created a 10-kilometer-long lake, at its farthest points, in the desert, posing questions about the wall’s structural integrity, made up of the excavated sediment heaped on each side and, in some areas, eroding in the wind. Due to the large spill indicating unreliable canal walls, it is ultimately possible that the QT Canal will remain closed until 2028 or longer. However, the decision to begin the canal’s diversion of up to 17% of the Amu Darya will lie with the Taliban leadership after the 285-kilometer excavation concludes in 2026.

Recommended Citation

Crosslin, Enerel L., "Monitoring the Qosh Tepa Canal Project: A Geospatial Timeline of Taliban Water Diversion" (2025). Honors Thesis. 384.
https://red.library.usd.edu/honors-thesis/384