Date of Award
Spring 5-7-2026
Document Type
Honors Thesis
Department/Major
Political Science
First Advisor
Julia Marin Hellwege, Ph.D
Second Advisor
Kurt Hackemer, Ph.D
Third Advisor
Carly Millerd, Ph.D
Keywords
Presidential Approval, US Military, Troop Deployments, Armed Conflict, Economic Indicators, Rally 'Round the Flag, Persian Gulf War, Commander-in-Chief
Subject Categories
American Politics | International Relations
Abstract
This thesis examines the relationship between the United States military and presidential job approval ratings from 1955 to 2021 through a mixed method approach. Using a multiple regression analysis, the study tested the independent effects of total active-duty troop levels and the frequency of active overseas conflicts while controlling for economic variables such as GDP and unemployment. The quantitative results indicate that while military variables are significantly correlated with approval in isolation, these effects diminish or disappear when analyzed alongside economic indicators. Specifically, the size of the military was a weak predictor of public approval, potentially due to low public salience regarding general troop presence. Furthermore, the negative impact of active conflicts on approval is heavily mediated by the broader economic climate. A case study on the Persian Gulf War contextualized these results by demonstrating that even highly successful military operations with clear objectives and low casualties produce only transitory boosts in support. The study concludes that the use of military force is often less politically advantageous than commonly assumed, as the American public consistently prioritizes domestic economic health over the president's performance as commander-in-chief.
Recommended Citation
Petersen, Griffin M., "Beyond the Rally Effect: U.S. Military Deployments and Their Independent Impact on Presidential Approval" (2026). Honors Thesis. 424.
https://red.library.usd.edu/honors-thesis/424